Value bet: Gateshead to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGateshead to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓76% · @1.30
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✗6% · fair 16.91
Gateshead vs Derby County U21 preview and prediction
The match
The National League Cup sees Gateshead take on Derby County U21 on Tuesday 8 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Gateshead International Stadium.
Form guide
Gateshead's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with Solihull Moors 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Derby County U21's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with West Bromwich Albion U21 4–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 3.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.5 goals: 3.2 for Gateshead and 2.3 for Derby County U21. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 91% likely and both teams score in 76% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gateshead 57%, draw 18%, Derby County U21 25%.
Both teams to score: yes (76%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Gateshead to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Gateshead 3–2 Derby County U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gateshead57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw18%fair 5.67 · @3.50
Derby County U2125%fair 3.93 · @3.00
5.50Expected goals
3.23Gateshead xG
2.27Derby County U21 xG
76%Both score
91%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–26%
2–25%
3–15%
2–15%
4–25%
3–34%
From our goals model: Gateshead 3.2 – 2.3 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gateshead to win✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Gateshead ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gateshead / FT Gateshead✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–2✗
6%
16.91
–
Form
Gateshead – last 6
DLLLDW
5 Sep
vs Solihull Moors
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Harrogate Town
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Sutton Utd
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
0–3
L
18 Aug
vs Nottingham Forest U21
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Woking
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby County U21 – last 6
DWLLLL
31 Aug
vs West Bromwich Albion U21
4–4
D
24 Aug
@ Reading U21
3–1
W
18 Aug
@ FC Halifax Town
2–6
L
14 Aug
vs Hull City U21
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs Carlisle
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Reading U21
1–4
L
1.8Scored / game
3.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gateshead and Derby County U21.
What is the prediction for Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Gateshead have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Derby County U21 25%.
How many goals will there be in Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 5.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 91% likely and both teams score 76% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Gateshead 3–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.5 goals in total.
When is Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Gateshead vs Derby County U21 (National League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Gateshead International Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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