Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
1
Value bet: Colón to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultColón to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Colón vs La Luz preview and prediction
The match
La Luz travel to face Colón in the Segunda División on Monday 17 August (00:30 WAT). Colón are 3rd with 39 points from 25 games (in the top four), while La Luz sit 9th on 34 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Colón's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Cerrito 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
La Luz's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Fenix 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Colón and 1.0 for La Luz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Colón 39%, draw 26%, La Luz 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Colón to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Colón 1–0 La Luz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Colón39%fair 2.55 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
La Luz35%fair 2.85 · @2.30
2.06Expected goals
1.07Colón xG
0.99La Luz xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Colón 1.1 – 1.0 La Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Colón to win✓
39%
2.55
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.35
–
Form
Colón – last 6
WLLWWD
8 Aug
vs Cerrito
1–0
W
3 Aug
@ Atenas
1–4
L
25 Jul
vs Paysandu
2–3
L
11 Jul
@ Sportivo Huracan
2–0
W
6 Jul
vs Uruguay Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Jun
@ Oriental
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
La Luz – last 6
DLWWLD
8 Aug
@ Fenix
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Rentistas
2–5
L
26 Jul
@ Miramar
1–0
W
13 Jul
vs Tacuarembo
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Plaza Colonia
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ CA River Plate
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colón and La Luz.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Colón vs La Luz?
On our numbers Colón have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and La Luz 35%.
How many goals will there be in Colón vs La Luz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Colón vs La Luz?
Our predicted score is Colón 1–0 La Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Colón vs La Luz?
Colón vs La Luz (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
