Derde Divisie Saturday · NetherlandsGroene Ster vs GOES prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Groene Ster 2.4 – 1.4 GOES expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Groene Ster hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 21% for GOES.
Groene Ster have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 per game. GOES have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. GOES come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.4 for Groene Ster, 1.4 for GOES). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Groene Ster have won 1, GOES have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.45.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Groene Ster to win ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time result | Groene Ster ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Groene Ster / FT Groene Ster ✗ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 10.93 | – |
Form
Groene Ster – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Rijnvogels | 1–5 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Gemert | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs AFC Amsterdam | 1–6 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ EVV | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Zwaluwen | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ TOGB | 3–3 | D |
GOES – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs UDI '19 | 0–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Poortugaal | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs UNA | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Dongen | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Blauw Geel | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Noordwijk | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Groene Ster v GOES | 1–0 |
Derde Divisie Saturday table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ACV | 12 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  VV Scherpenzeel | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Harkemase Boys | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  TEC | 12 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 |  Excelsior '31 | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  SC Genemuiden | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sportlust '46 | 12 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Purmersteijn | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sparta Nijkerk | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |  ADO '20 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hercules | 12 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hoogeveen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eemdijk | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 14 |  DVS 33 Ermelo | 12 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Staphorst | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hollandia | 12 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 |  Dovo | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  SVZW | 12 | -21 | 1 |
| 1 |  FC Lisse | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 |  Noordwijk | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 3 |  Excelsior Maassluis | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Rijnvogels | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zwaluwen | 12 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 |  Poortugaal | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  UDI '19 | 12 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  GOES | 12 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Gemert | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dongen | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Blauw Geel | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  TOGB | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Roosendaal | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  UNA | 12 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Vvsb | 12 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Groene Ster | 12 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 |  Achilles Veen | 12 | -20 | 6 |
| 18 |  EVV | 12 | -14 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Groene Ster vs GOES?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Groene Ster vs GOES?
On our numbers Groene Ster have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and GOES 21%.
How many goals will there be in Groene Ster vs GOES?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Groene Ster vs GOES?
Groene Ster vs GOES (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.