Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 50% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEsteghlal FC to win ✓67% · @1.26
Double chanceEsteghlal FC or draw ✓88% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.55
Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak preview and prediction
The match
The Persian Gulf Pro League sees Esteghlal FC take on Mes Shahr-e Babak on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Azadi Stadium. Esteghlal FC are 5th with 21 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Mes Shahr-e Babak sit 18th on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Esteghlal FC's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Fajr Sepasi 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mes Shahr-e Babak's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Naft Gachsaran 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Esteghlal FC and 0.7 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Esteghlal FC 67%, draw 21%, Mes Shahr-e Babak 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.40.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.40 – 50% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Esteghlal FC 2–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Esteghlal FC67%fair 1.50 · @1.26
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @4.50
Mes Shahr-e Babak12%fair 8.01 · @10.75
2.71Expected goals
1.98Esteghlal FC xG
0.72Mes Shahr-e Babak xG
50%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Esteghlal FC 2.0 – 0.7 Mes Shahr-e Babak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esteghlal FC to win✓
67%
1.50
1.26
Double chance
Esteghlal FC or draw✓
88%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.82
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.32
Half-time result
Esteghlal FC ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esteghlal FC / FT Esteghlal FC✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.55
–
Form
Esteghlal FC – last 3
WWL
27 Feb
vs Fajr Sepasi
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Mes Rafsanjan
1–0
W
17 Feb
@ Al Hussein
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mes Shahr-e Babak – last 6
WDWWLD
16 Jul
@ Naft Gachsaran
2–0
W
11 Jul
vs Mes Soongoun
0–0
D
3 Jul
@ Shenavarsazi Qeshm
3–1
W
27 Jun
vs Niroye Zamini
1–0
W
21 Jun
@ Nassaji Mazandaran
0–1
L
15 Jun
vs Be'sat Kermanshah
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Esteghlal FC and Mes Shahr-e Babak.
What is the prediction for Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
On our numbers Esteghlal FC have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mes Shahr-e Babak 12%.
How many goals will there be in Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
Our predicted score is Esteghlal FC 2–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Azadi Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
