Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultYagüe to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.12
Yagüe vs Cenicero preview and prediction
The match
Yagüe host Cenicero in the Tercera División RFEF Group 16 on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT). Yagüe are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Cenicero sit 16th on 6 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Yagüe's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Haro Deportivo 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cenicero's last 4: LWDD Most recently they lost to River Ebro 2–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cenicero arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Yagüe and 0.8 for Cenicero. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Yagüe 63%, draw 16%, Cenicero 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Yagüe to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Yagüe 1–0 Cenicero. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Yagüe63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
Draw16%fair 6.30 · @3.50
Cenicero21%fair 4.80 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.71Yagüe xG
0.79Cenicero xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Yagüe 1.7 – 0.8 Cenicero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Yagüe to win✓
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Yagüe / FT Yagüe✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.12
–
Form
Yagüe – last 6
LWLLLD
27 Sep
@ Haro Deportivo
0–3
L
18 Sep
vs River Ebro
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Alfaro
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Berceo
1–2
L
30 Apr
@ Berceo
0–2
L
26 Apr
@ Comillas
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cenicero – last 4
LWDD
26 Sep
@ River Ebro
2–3
L
20 Sep
vs Berceo
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Comillas
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Varea
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Yagüe and Cenicero.
Our pick is Yagüe to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Yagüe vs Cenicero?
On our numbers Yagüe have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Cenicero 21%.
How many goals will there be in Yagüe vs Cenicero?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Yagüe vs Cenicero?
Our predicted score is Yagüe 1–0 Cenicero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Yagüe vs Cenicero?
Yagüe vs Cenicero (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
