Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBerceo to win ✓59% · @1.60
Double chanceBerceo or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Berceo vs San Marcial preview and prediction
The match
San Marcial travel to face Berceo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 16 on Sunday 27 September (11:00 WAT). Berceo are 6th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while San Marcial sit 10th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Berceo's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Cenicero 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Marcial's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Comillas 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Berceo and 0.9 for San Marcial. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Berceo 59%, draw 23%, San Marcial 18%.
Safer route: Berceo or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Berceo to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Berceo 1–0 San Marcial. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Berceo59%fair 1.69 · @1.60
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.75
San Marcial18%fair 5.71 · @4.50
2.73Expected goals
1.83Berceo xG
0.89San Marcial xG
46%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Berceo 1.8 – 0.9 San Marcial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Berceo to win✓
59%
1.69
1.60
Double chance
Berceo or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Berceo ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Berceo / FT Berceo✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.33
–
Form
Berceo – last 6
LWWWWL
20 Sep
@ Cenicero
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs River Ebro
7–0
W
5 Sep
@ Yagüe
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Yagüe
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Villegas
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ Calahorra
0–2
L
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Marcial – last 6
DDWWDD
18 Sep
vs Comillas
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Varea
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Vianés
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Comillas
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs Vianés
2–2
D
8 Mar
vs La Calzada
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Berceo and San Marcial.
Our pick is Berceo to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Berceo vs San Marcial?
On our numbers Berceo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Marcial 18%.
How many goals will there be in Berceo vs San Marcial?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Berceo vs San Marcial?
Our predicted score is Berceo 1–0 San Marcial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Berceo vs San Marcial?
Berceo vs San Marcial (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
