Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Marino to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarino to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceMarino or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Marino vs Playas Sotavento preview and prediction
The match
Playas Sotavento travel to face Marino in the Tercera División RFEF Group 12 on Sunday 4 October (12:00 WAT). Marino are 7th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Playas Sotavento sit 17th on 4 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Marino's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Laguna de Duero 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Playas Sotavento's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Los Llanos 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Marino and 1.0 for Playas Sotavento. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 49%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Marino to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marino or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Marino 2–1 Playas Sotavento. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marino62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.50
Playas Sotavento16%fair 6.23 · @3.70
3.15Expected goals
2.13Marino xG
1.02Playas Sotavento xG
49%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Marino 2.1 – 1.0 Playas Sotavento expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marino to win✓
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Marino or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Marino ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marino / FT Marino✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Form
Marino – last 6
DWLLLL
26 Sep
@ Laguna de Duero
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Real Unión de Tenerife
3–1
W
13 Sep
vs Panadería Pulido
1–2
L
26 Jul
vs Tenerife
0–6
L
10 May
vs Arucas
1–2
L
1 May
@ Villa Santa Brígida
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Playas Sotavento – last 3
DLL
26 Sep
vs Los Llanos
2–2
D
20 Sep
@ UD San Fernando
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Las Palmas III
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marino and Playas Sotavento.
What is the prediction for Marino vs Playas Sotavento?
Our pick is Marino or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Marino vs Playas Sotavento?
On our numbers Marino have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Playas Sotavento 16%.
How many goals will there be in Marino vs Playas Sotavento?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marino vs Playas Sotavento?
Our predicted score is Marino 2–1 Playas Sotavento, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Marino vs Playas Sotavento?
Marino vs Playas Sotavento (Tercera División RFEF Group 12) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
