Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: La Virgen del Camino to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Virgen del Camino to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.96
Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino preview and prediction
The match
Bembibre host La Virgen del Camino in the Tercera División RFEF Group 8 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Bembibre are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while La Virgen del Camino sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bembibre's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Guijuelo 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
La Virgen del Camino's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Cristo Atlético 0–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
La Virgen del Camino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished La Virgen del Camino 3–1 Bembibre.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Bembibre and 1.3 for La Virgen del Camino. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bembibre 32%, draw 22%, La Virgen del Camino 45%.
Value angle: La Virgen del Camino to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Bembibre 1–1 La Virgen del Camino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bembibre32%fair 3.08 · @2.55
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
La Virgen del Camino45%fair 2.22 · @2.50
2.33Expected goals
1.04Bembibre xG
1.30La Virgen del Camino xG
46%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Bembibre 1.0 – 1.3 La Virgen del Camino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Virgen del Camino to win✗
45%
2.22
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Virgen del Camino / FT La Virgen del Camino✗
What is the prediction for Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
On our numbers Bembibre have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and La Virgen del Camino 45%.
How many goals will there be in Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Our predicted score is Bembibre 1–1 La Virgen del Camino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino (Tercera División RFEF Group 8) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
