Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Atlètic Lleida to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlètic Lleida to win ✗38% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.22
Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida preview and prediction
The match
Peralada host Atlètic Lleida in the Tercera División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Peralada are 15th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Atlètic Lleida sit 7th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Peralada's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Vilanova 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Atlètic Lleida's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Mollerussa 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Peralada arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Peralada and 1.1 for Atlètic Lleida. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 45%.
Value angle: Atlètic Lleida to win at 3.20 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Peralada 1–1 Atlètic Lleida. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Peralada38%fair 2.66 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.10
Atlètic Lleida38%fair 2.62 · @3.20
2.21Expected goals
1.10Peralada xG
1.11Atlètic Lleida xG
45%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Peralada 1.1 – 1.1 Atlètic Lleida expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlètic Lleida to win✗
38%
2.62
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlètic Lleida / FT Atlètic Lleida✗
20%
4.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.22
–
Form
Peralada – last 6
DLDWDW
19 Sep
@ Vilanova
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Tona
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ San Cristóbal
1–1
D
10 May
vs Montañesa
5–0
W
3 May
@ Cerdanyola del Vallès
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Vic
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atlètic Lleida – last 6
WLDDLL
20 Sep
vs Mollerussa
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ L'Hospitalet
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Cornellà
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Manresa
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Reddis
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Barbastro
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Peralada and Atlètic Lleida.
What is the prediction for Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida?
On our numbers Peralada have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atlètic Lleida 38%.
How many goals will there be in Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida?
Our predicted score is Peralada 1–1 Atlètic Lleida, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida?
Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida (Tercera División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
