Value bet: Pasaia KE to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAretxabaleta to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.67
Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE preview and prediction
The match
Aretxabaleta host Pasaia KE in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Aretxabaleta are 7th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Pasaia KE sit 15th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Aretxabaleta's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Lagun Onak 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pasaia KE's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Santurtzi 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Pasaia KE arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 April 2026, finished Pasaia KE 3–2 Aretxabaleta.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Aretxabaleta and 0.9 for Pasaia KE. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aretxabaleta 44%, draw 22%, Pasaia KE 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Pasaia KE to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Aretxabaleta 1–1 Pasaia KE. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aretxabaleta44%fair 2.25 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Pasaia KE33%fair 3.01 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.11Aretxabaleta xG
0.89Pasaia KE xG
56%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aretxabaleta 1.1 – 0.9 Pasaia KE expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
On our numbers Aretxabaleta have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pasaia KE 33%.
How many goals will there be in Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Our predicted score is Aretxabaleta 1–1 Pasaia KE, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
