Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.33
Derio vs Beasain preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 4 sees Derio take on Beasain on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT). Derio are 5th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Beasain sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Derio's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Aretxabaleta 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Beasain's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Durango 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Derio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Derio and 0.9 for Beasain. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derio 36%, draw 24%, Beasain 40%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Derio 0–0 Beasain. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derio36%fair 2.77 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Beasain40%fair 2.51 · @2.50
1.75Expected goals
0.84Derio xG
0.91Beasain xG
45%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
0–116%
1–015%
1–113%
0–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Derio 0.8 – 0.9 Beasain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beasain to win✗
40%
2.51
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.33
–
Form
Derio – last 6
WWDDDD
26 Sep
@ Aretxabaleta
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Santurtzi
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Salamanca UDS
3–3
D
12 Sep
@ San Ignacio
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Compostela
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Real Sociedad III
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Beasain – last 6
LLDWDL
26 Sep
vs Durango
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Touring
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Aretxabaleta
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Santurtzi
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Lagun Onak
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Valle Egüés
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Beasain.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Derio vs Beasain?
On our numbers Derio have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Beasain 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Beasain?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Beasain?
Our predicted score is Derio 0–0 Beasain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Beasain?
Derio vs Beasain (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
