Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Derio to win @ 2.50 – our chance 46% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerio to win ✓46% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · fair 1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.56
Aretxabaleta vs Derio preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 4 sees Aretxabaleta take on Derio on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Aretxabaleta are 7th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Derio sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Aretxabaleta's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Durango 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Derio's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Santurtzi 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Aretxabaleta 1–2 Derio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.7 for Aretxabaleta and 1.0 for Derio. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Derio to win at 2.50 – 46% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aretxabaleta 0–0 Derio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aretxabaleta32%fair 3.10 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Derio46%fair 2.18 · @2.50
1.67Expected goals
0.72Aretxabaleta xG
0.96Derio xG
38%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
0–118%
1–013%
1–113%
0–29%
1–26%
From our goals model: Aretxabaleta 0.7 – 1.0 Derio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
On our numbers Aretxabaleta have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derio 46%.
How many goals will there be in Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
Our predicted score is Aretxabaleta 0–0 Derio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
Aretxabaleta vs Derio (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
