Lagun Onak travel to face Santurtzi in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 27 September (10:15 WAT). Santurtzi are 16th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Lagun Onak sit 13th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santurtzi's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Derio 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Lagun Onak's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat San Ignacio 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lagun Onak arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Santurtzi and 1.0 for Lagun Onak. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santurtzi 36%, draw 26%, Lagun Onak 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.91, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Santurtzi 1–1 Lagun Onak. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santurtzi36%fair 2.77 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.80
Lagun Onak38%fair 2.63 · @2.50
2.00Expected goals
0.98Santurtzi xG
1.02Lagun Onak xG
52%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Santurtzi 1.0 – 1.0 Lagun Onak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lagun Onak to win✓
38%
2.63
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.26
–
Form
Santurtzi – last 6
LWLLLD
20 Sep
@ Derio
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Durango
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Beasain
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Eibar III
1–3
L
9 May
@ Durango
1–4
L
26 Apr
@ Zamudio
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lagun Onak – last 6
WLDDLW
19 Sep
vs San Ignacio
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Real Sociedad III
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Leioa
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Beasain
2–2
D
24 May
@ Derio
0–2
L
17 May
vs Derio
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santurtzi and Lagun Onak.
What is the prediction for Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
On our numbers Santurtzi have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lagun Onak 38%.
How many goals will there be in Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
Our predicted score is Santurtzi 1–1 Lagun Onak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 10:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
