Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Derio to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerio to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceDerio or draw ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.80
Derio vs Santurtzi preview and prediction
The match
Derio host Santurtzi in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Derio are 5th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Santurtzi sit 16th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Derio's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Salamanca UDS 3–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Santurtzi's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Durango 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Santurtzi 1–1 Derio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.2 for Derio and 0.6 for Santurtzi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derio 56%, draw 24%, Santurtzi 21%.
Safer route: Derio or draw (79%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Derio to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derio or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Derio 1–0 Santurtzi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derio56%fair 1.80 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.10
Santurtzi21%fair 4.87 · @3.60
1.75Expected goals
1.20Derio xG
0.55Santurtzi xG
43%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–017%
2–012%
1–111%
0–110%
2–17%
From our goals model: Derio 1.2 – 0.6 Santurtzi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Derio or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derio vs Santurtzi?
On our numbers Derio have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santurtzi 21%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Santurtzi?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Santurtzi?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–0 Santurtzi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Santurtzi?
Derio vs Santurtzi (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
