Value bet: Cayón to win @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCayón to win ✓53% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 4.88
Selaya vs Cayón preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 3 sees Selaya take on Cayón on Friday 30 October, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT). Selaya are 16th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Cayón sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Selaya's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Guarnizo 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cayón's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Laredo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cayón arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Selaya 0–2 Cayón.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.6 for Selaya and 1.1 for Cayón. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Selaya 24%, draw 22%, Cayón 53%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Cayón to win at 2.00 – 53% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Selaya 0–1 Cayón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Selaya24%fair 4.14 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.00
Cayón53%fair 1.87 · @2.00
1.69Expected goals
0.58Selaya xG
1.11Cayón xG
43%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–120%
0–018%
1–112%
0–211%
1–011%
1–27%
From our goals model: Selaya 0.6 – 1.1 Cayón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Selaya vs Cayón?
On our numbers Selaya have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cayón 53%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Cayón?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Cayón?
Our predicted score is Selaya 0–1 Cayón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Cayón?
Selaya vs Cayón (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
