Value bet: Celta de Vigo III to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCoruña to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.65
Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III preview and prediction
The match
Coruña host Celta de Vigo III in the Tercera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT). Coruña are 16th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Celta de Vigo III sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Coruña's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Alondras 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Celta de Vigo III's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Atlético Arteixo 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.6 for Coruña and 1.5 for Celta de Vigo III. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Coruña 40%, draw 23%, Celta de Vigo III 37%.
Value angle: Celta de Vigo III to win at 3.00 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.81, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Coruña 2–1 Celta de Vigo III. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coruña40%fair 2.50 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.25
Celta de Vigo III37%fair 2.70 · @3.00
3.06Expected goals
1.57Coruña xG
1.50Celta de Vigo III xG
53%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Coruña 1.6 – 1.5 Celta de Vigo III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coruña to win✓
40%
2.50
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coruña / FT Coruña✓
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.65
–
Form
Coruña – last 6
WLLLLW
3 Oct
@ Alondras
1–0
W
27 Sep
vs Viveiro
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Estradense
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Villalbés
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ Boiro
2–3
L
10 May
vs Cambados
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo III – last 6
WLDWLL
4 Oct
vs Atlético Arteixo
3–2
W
26 Sep
@ Sarriana
2–3
L
20 Sep
vs Antela
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Pontevedra II
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Lalin
1–2
L
5 Apr
@ Viveiro
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coruña and Celta de Vigo III.
What is the prediction for Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III?
On our numbers Coruña have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Celta de Vigo III 37%.
How many goals will there be in Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III?
Our predicted score is Coruña 2–1 Celta de Vigo III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III?
Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III (Tercera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
