Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlondras to win ✗64% · @1.73
Double chanceAlondras or draw ✗88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗58% · @1.95
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Alondras vs Coruña preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 1 sees Alondras take on Coruña on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT). Alondras are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Coruña sit 16th on 9 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alondras's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Atlético Arteixo 4–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coruña's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Viveiro 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Alondras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Alondras 3–2 Coruña.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for Alondras and 1.1 for Coruña. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alondras 64%, draw 24%, Coruña 12%.
Safer route: Alondras or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alondras to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alondras 2–1 Coruña. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alondras64%fair 1.55 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.40
Coruña12%fair 8.43 · @4.20
3.50Expected goals
2.43Alondras xG
1.07Coruña xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alondras 2.4 – 1.1 Coruña expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Alondras to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Alondras vs Coruña?
On our numbers Alondras have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Coruña 12%.
How many goals will there be in Alondras vs Coruña?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alondras vs Coruña?
Our predicted score is Alondras 2–1 Coruña, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Alondras vs Coruña?
Alondras vs Coruña (Tercera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
