Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Potenza to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPotenza to win ✓65% · @1.73
Double chancePotenza or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.73
Potenza vs Crotone preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone C sees Potenza take on Crotone on Sunday 1 November, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani. Potenza are 1st with 32 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Crotone sit 20th on 1 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 31 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Potenza's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Bari 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Crotone's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Casarano 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Potenza arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Potenza and 1.0 for Crotone. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Potenza 65%, draw 19%, Crotone 16%.
Safer route: Potenza or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Potenza to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Potenza or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Potenza 2–0 Crotone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Potenza65%fair 1.53 · @1.73
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @3.50
Crotone16%fair 6.37 · @3.80
3.14Expected goals
2.18Potenza xG
0.96Crotone xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Potenza 2.2 – 1.0 Crotone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Potenza to win✓
65%
1.53
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Potenza or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Potenza ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Potenza / FT Potenza✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.73
–
Form
Potenza – last 6
WDWWWW
27 Oct
vs Bari
2–1
W
23 Oct
@ Team Altamura
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs Catania
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Foggia
3–1
W
4 Oct
vs AZ Picerno
4–2
W
27 Sep
@ Barletta
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Crotone – last 6
LDLLWD
26 Oct
vs Casarano
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Bari
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Audace Cerignola
2–3
L
3 Oct
@ Catania
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Salernitana
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ SS Monopoli
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Potenza and Crotone.
Our pick is Potenza or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Potenza vs Crotone?
On our numbers Potenza have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Crotone 16%.
How many goals will there be in Potenza vs Crotone?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Potenza vs Crotone?
Our predicted score is Potenza 2–0 Crotone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Potenza vs Crotone?
Potenza vs Crotone (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
