Value bet: Bari to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBari to win ✗42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.32
Casertana vs Bari preview and prediction
The match
Casertana host Bari in the Serie C Girone C on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stadio Alberto Pinto. Casertana are 8th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Bari sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Casertana's last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with Sorrento 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bari's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Crotone 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bari arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Casertana and 1.3 for Bari. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casertana 34%, draw 23%, Bari 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Bari to win at 2.80 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Casertana 1–1 Bari. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casertana34%fair 2.94 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.90
Bari42%fair 2.35 · @2.80
2.35Expected goals
1.09Casertana xG
1.26Bari xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Casertana 1.1 – 1.3 Bari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✗
42%
2.35
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.32
–
Form
Casertana – last 6
DWLLDW
18 Oct
@ Sorrento
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs SS Monopoli
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Cavese
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Catania
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Audace Cerignola
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Team Altamura
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bari – last 6
DWLWWD
18 Oct
vs Crotone
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Salernitana
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casertana and Bari.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Casertana vs Bari?
On our numbers Casertana have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bari 42%.
How many goals will there be in Casertana vs Bari?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casertana vs Bari?
Our predicted score is Casertana 1–1 Bari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Casertana vs Bari?
Casertana vs Bari (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Pinto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
