Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Grosseto to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLivorno to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.70
Livorno vs Grosseto preview and prediction
The match
Grosseto travel to Stadio Armando Picchi in the Serie C Girone B on Friday 16 October (19:30 WAT) to face Livorno. Livorno are 8th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Grosseto sit 3rd on 23 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Livorno's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Forli 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Grosseto's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Vis Pesaro 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grosseto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Livorno and 1.2 for Grosseto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Livorno 43%, draw 22%, Grosseto 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Grosseto to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Livorno 1–1 Grosseto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Livorno43%fair 2.31 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.00
Grosseto34%fair 2.91 · @3.30
2.61Expected goals
1.40Livorno xG
1.21Grosseto xG
61%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Livorno 1.4 – 1.2 Grosseto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✗
43%
2.31
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.70
–
Form
Livorno – last 6
DLWDWL
11 Oct
@ Forli
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Pescara
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Pianese
3–2
W
21 Sep
@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Vado
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Spezia
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Grosseto – last 6
WLWWDD
10 Oct
@ Vis Pesaro
3–2
W
3 Oct
vs Sambenedettese
1–3
L
26 Sep
@ Pineto
4–0
W
20 Sep
vs Perugia
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Pianese
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livorno and Grosseto.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Livorno vs Grosseto?
On our numbers Livorno have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grosseto 34%.
How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Grosseto?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Grosseto?
Our predicted score is Livorno 1–1 Grosseto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Livorno vs Grosseto?
Livorno vs Grosseto (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
