Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Perugia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPerugia to win ✗65% · @1.85
Double chancePerugia or draw ✗88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.40
Perugia vs Vado preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Perugia take on Vado on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadio Renato Curi. Perugia are 12th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Vado sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Perugia's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Gubbio 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Vado's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Forli 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Perugia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for Perugia and 0.5 for Vado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Perugia 65%, draw 24%, Vado 12%.
Safer route: Perugia or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Perugia to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Perugia or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Perugia 1–0 Vado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Perugia65%fair 1.54 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.00
Vado12%fair 8.66 · @4.00
2.19Expected goals
1.65Perugia xG
0.54Vado xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.7 – 0.5 Vado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Perugia to win✗
65%
1.54
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Perugia or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Perugia / FT Perugia✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.40
–
Form
Perugia – last 6
WWLLLW
3 Oct
@ Gubbio
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Reggiana
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Grosseto
0–2
L
16 Sep
vs Spezia
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vado – last 6
WDLLLL
3 Oct
vs Forli
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Torres
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Pescara
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Livorno
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Reggiana
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Vado.
Our pick is Perugia or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Perugia vs Vado?
On our numbers Perugia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vado 12%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Vado?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Vado?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–0 Vado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Vado?
Perugia vs Vado (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
