Serie C Girone B · Italy · Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro MarianiPineto vs Grosseto prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Grosseto to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pineto 1.1 – 1.1 Grosseto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Pineto and Grosseto on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Pineto have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Grosseto have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Grosseto come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for Pineto, 1.1 for Grosseto). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Grosseto to win at 3.00 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Grosseto to win ✓ | 39% | 2.58 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Grosseto / FT Grosseto ✓ | 21% | 4.86 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.13 | – |
Form
Pineto – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Campobasso FC | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Forli | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Sambenedettese | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Perugia | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Livorno | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Latina | 0–0 | D |
Grosseto – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Perugia | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Campobasso FC | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Pianese | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Latina | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Torres | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Ostia Mare | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pineto and Grosseto.
Serie C Girone B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Livorno | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 13 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Latina | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 13 | -3 | 13 |
| 17 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 |  Gubbio | 13 | -12 | 8 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 13 | -16 | 5 |
More Serie C Girone B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pineto vs Grosseto?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pineto vs Grosseto?
On our numbers Pineto have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Grosseto 39%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Grosseto?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Pineto vs Grosseto?
Pineto vs Grosseto (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.