Serie C Girone B · Italy · Stadio Carlo ZecchiniGrosseto vs Perugia prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.78 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Grosseto to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Grosseto 1.3 – 1.2 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Grosseto and Perugia on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Grosseto have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Perugia have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Grosseto, 1.2 for Perugia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.78. For a bigger price, Grosseto to win at 2.75 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Grosseto to win ✓ | 40% | 2.47 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Grosseto / FT Grosseto ✓ | 23% | 4.44 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.35 | – |
Form
Grosseto – last 6
| 16 Sep | vs Campobasso FC | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Pianese | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Latina | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Torres | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Ostia Mare | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Spezia | 1–1 | D |
Perugia – last 6
| 16 Sep | vs Spezia | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Ravenna | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Pineto | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Vis Pesaro | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Ostia Mare | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Vis Pesaro | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grosseto and Perugia.
Serie C Girone B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Livorno | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 13 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Latina | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 13 | -3 | 13 |
| 17 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 |  Gubbio | 13 | -12 | 8 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 13 | -16 | 5 |
More Serie C Girone B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Grosseto vs Perugia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Grosseto vs Perugia?
On our numbers Grosseto have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Perugia 35%.
How many goals will there be in Grosseto vs Perugia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Grosseto vs Perugia?
Grosseto vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Carlo Zecchini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.