Value bet: Alcione to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcione to win ✗58% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.56
Alcione vs Lumezzane preview and prediction
The match
Lumezzane travel to Stadio Ferruccio in the Serie C Girone A on Friday 6 November (20:30 WAT) to face Alcione. Alcione are 8th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Lumezzane sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alcione's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Giana Erminio 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Lumezzane's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Arzignano Valchiampo 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Alcione arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Alcione and 1.1 for Lumezzane. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Alcione to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alcione 1–1 Lumezzane. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcione58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw16%fair 6.08 · @3.30
Lumezzane26%fair 3.86 · @3.25
2.83Expected goals
1.77Alcione xG
1.06Lumezzane xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Alcione 1.8 – 1.1 Lumezzane expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcione to win✗
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcione / FT Alcione✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.56
–
Form
Alcione – last 6
WLWDDD
31 Oct
@ Giana Erminio
3–1
W
24 Oct
vs Athletic Carpi
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Desenzano Calvina
4–1
W
11 Oct
@ Lecco
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Trento
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Albinoleffe
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lumezzane – last 6
DLLDWL
1 Nov
vs Arzignano Valchiampo
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Pergolettese
1–2
L
17 Oct
@ Athletic Carpi
1–3
L
13 Oct
@ Juventus U23
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Albinoleffe
3–2
W
26 Sep
vs Folgore Caratese
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcione and Lumezzane.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alcione vs Lumezzane?
On our numbers Alcione have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lumezzane 26%.
How many goals will there be in Alcione vs Lumezzane?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcione vs Lumezzane?
Our predicted score is Alcione 1–1 Lumezzane, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alcione vs Lumezzane?
Alcione vs Lumezzane (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ferruccio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
