Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Novara to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceNovara or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.73
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone A sees Novara take on Desenzano Calvina on Monday 2 November, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Stadio Silvio Piola. Novara are 14th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Desenzano Calvina sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Novara's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Arzignano Valchiampo 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Desenzano Calvina's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Desenzano Calvina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Novara and 0.6 for Desenzano Calvina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Novara to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Novara or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Novara 1–0 Desenzano Calvina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novara62%fair 1.60 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.10
Desenzano Calvina14%fair 7.23 · @3.30
2.23Expected goals
1.62Novara xG
0.61Desenzano Calvina xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Novara 1.6 – 0.6 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✓
62%
1.60
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Novara or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.73
–
Form
Novara – last 6
LDLWLD
25 Oct
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
0–2
L
18 Oct
@ Albinoleffe
2–2
D
10 Oct
vs Cittadella
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Ospitaletto
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Athletic Carpi
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Desenzano Calvina – last 6
WLLWWD
28 Oct
@ Dolomiti Bellunesi
1–0
W
25 Oct
vs Giana Erminio
1–2
L
18 Oct
@ Alcione
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–0
W
3 Oct
@ Folgore Caratese
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Juventus U23
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Desenzano Calvina.
What is the prediction for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our pick is Novara or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
On our numbers Novara have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Desenzano Calvina 14%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–0 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
