Serie C Girone A · Italy · Mino FaviniRenate vs Giana Erminio prediction & analysis
Renate or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Renate to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Renate 1.6 – 0.6 Giana Erminio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Renate are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for Giana Erminio.
Renate have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Giana Erminio have 4 points from their last 6 (0W 4D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Renate, 0.6 for Giana Erminio). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Renate or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Renate to win at 1.91 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Renate to win ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Renate or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Renate / FT Renate ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.41 | – |
Form
Renate – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Ospitaletto | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Treviso | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Arzignano Valchiampo | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Dolomiti Bellunesi | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Lumezzane | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Novara | 1–2 | L |
Giana Erminio – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Treviso | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs PRO Vercelli | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Folgore Caratese | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Trento | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Lecco | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Giana Erminio.
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Renate vs Giana Erminio?
Our pick is Renate or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Renate vs Giana Erminio?
On our numbers Renate have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Giana Erminio 15%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Giana Erminio?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Renate vs Giana Erminio?
Renate vs Giana Erminio (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.