Serie C Girone A · Italy · Stadio Rigamonti CeppiLecco vs Union Brescia prediction & analysis
Union Brescia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Union Brescia to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lecco 0.4 – 1.4 Union Brescia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Union Brescia travel as clear favourites – 65% to win, against 15% for Lecco.
Lecco have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Union Brescia have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. Union Brescia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.9 goals (0.4 for Lecco, 1.4 for Union Brescia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (22%), 0–0 (16%), 0–2 (15%).
Our pick is Union Brescia or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.18. For a bigger price, Union Brescia to win at 1.80 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Union Brescia to win ✗ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Union Brescia or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 88% | 1.13 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Union Brescia / FT Union Brescia ✗ | 37% | 2.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 22% | 4.55 | – |
Form
Lecco – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Cittadella | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Pergolettese | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | @ Desenzano Calvina | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Giana Erminio | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | @ Trento | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Treviso | 0–1 | L |
Union Brescia – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Alcione | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Treviso | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Trento | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Desenzano Calvina | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Giana Erminio | 5–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lecco and Union Brescia.
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lecco vs Union Brescia?
Our pick is Union Brescia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lecco vs Union Brescia?
On our numbers Lecco have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Union Brescia 65%.
How many goals will there be in Lecco vs Union Brescia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Lecco vs Union Brescia?
Lecco vs Union Brescia (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.