Serie C Girone A · Italy · Mino FaviniRenate vs Novara prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.82 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
Value bet: Novara to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Renate 1.3 – 1.2 Novara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Renate and Novara on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Renate have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.7 per game. Novara have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Novara come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Renate, 1.2 for Novara). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is better than our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Novara to win at 3.00 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Renate to win ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | 2.30 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Renate / FT Renate ✗ | 22% | 4.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.52 | – |
Form
Renate – last 6
| 3 Sep | @ Cittadella | 1–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Cittadella | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | @ Alcione | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Lumezzane | 2–2 | D |
| 13 May | vs Casarano | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Apr | @ Trento | 3–3 | D |
Novara – last 6
| 3 Sep | vs Livorno | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Folgore Caratese | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Juventus U23 | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Alcione | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Aug | @ Virtus Entella | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Novara.
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Renate vs Novara?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Renate vs Novara?
On our numbers Renate have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Novara 36%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Novara?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Renate vs Novara?
Renate vs Novara (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.