Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓64% · @1.41
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓84% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.88
Sao Paulo vs Bolívar preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Sao Paulo take on Bolívar on Wednesday 19 August, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Coritiba 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Bolívar's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat San Antonio Bulo Bulo 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Bolívar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 August 2026, finished Bolívar 1–1 Sao Paulo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Sao Paulo and 0.6 for Bolívar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 64%, draw 20%, Bolívar 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.35, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–0 Bolívar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo64%fair 1.56 · @1.41
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @4.80
Bolívar16%fair 6.25 · @6.50
2.27Expected goals
1.64Sao Paulo xG
0.63Bolívar xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.6 – 0.6 Bolívar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bolívar 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Bolívar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Sao Paulo vs Bolívar (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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