Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne City to win ✗62% · @1.65
Double chanceMelbourne City or draw ✗83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Lions vs Melbourne City preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne City travel to Lions Stadium in the Australia Cup on Tuesday 11 August (10:30 WAT) to face Lions.
Form guide
Lions's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Brisbane Roar II 4–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Melbourne City's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Palermo 0–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Lions and 1.7 for Melbourne City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lions 17%, draw 22%, Melbourne City 62%.
Safer route: Melbourne City or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Melbourne City or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lions 0–1 Melbourne City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lions17%fair 5.94 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.75
Melbourne City62%fair 1.62 · @1.65
2.50Expected goals
0.76Lions xG
1.74Melbourne City xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Lions 0.8 – 1.7 Melbourne City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✗
62%
1.62
1.65
Double chance
Melbourne City or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Melbourne City ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Lions – last 6
WWDWWL
7 Aug
vs Brisbane Roar II
4–2
W
1 Aug
vs Peninsula Power
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs Perth Glory
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Gold Coast United
1–0
W
12 Jul
vs Eastern Suburbs
1–0
W
7 Jul
@ Gold Coast Knights
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Melbourne City – last 6
LWLWWW
7 Aug
vs Palermo
0–2
L
26 Jul
@ Weston Bears
3–0
W
26 Apr
vs Adelaide United
1–2
L
18 Apr
@ Brisbane Roar
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
2–0
W
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lions and Melbourne City.
What is the prediction for Lions vs Melbourne City?
Our pick is Melbourne City or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lions vs Melbourne City?
On our numbers Lions have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Melbourne City 62%.
How many goals will there be in Lions vs Melbourne City?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lions vs Melbourne City?
Our predicted score is Lions 0–1 Melbourne City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lions vs Melbourne City?
Lions vs Melbourne City (Australia Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 11 August 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Lions Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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