Value bet: US Ben Guerdane to win @ 2.90 – our chance 45% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUS Ben Guerdane to win ✓45% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.61
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane preview and prediction
The match
US Ben Guerdane travel to Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October (16:30 WAT) to face ES Hammam-Sousse. ES Hammam-Sousse are 16th with 1 points from 7 games (in the bottom three), while US Ben Guerdane sit 1st on 17 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
ES Hammam-Sousse's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to ES Zarzis 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
US Ben Guerdane's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Club Africain 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
US Ben Guerdane arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for ES Hammam-Sousse and 1.3 for US Ben Guerdane. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ES Hammam-Sousse 29%, draw 27%, US Ben Guerdane 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.15.
Value angle: US Ben Guerdane to win at 2.90 – 45% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. Predicted score: ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US Ben Guerdane. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ES Hammam-Sousse29%fair 3.48 · @2.70
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @2.50
US Ben Guerdane45%fair 2.24 · @2.90
2.30Expected goals
0.99ES Hammam-Sousse xG
1.31US Ben Guerdane xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: ES Hammam-Sousse 1.0 – 1.3 US Ben Guerdane expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Ben Guerdane to win✓
45%
2.24
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT US Ben Guerdane / FT US Ben Guerdane✓
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.61
–
Form
ES Hammam-Sousse – last 6
LLLLDL
11 Oct
@ ES Zarzis
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Stade Tunisien
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ ES Metlaoui
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Club Africain
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs US Monastirienne
0–0
D
29 May
vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
US Ben Guerdane – last 6
WWDDWL
10 Oct
vs Club Africain
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs CS Hammam-Lif
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs CS Sfaxien
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ US Monastirienne
3–3
D
30 Aug
@ Olympique Béja
2–1
W
14 May
vs ES Tunis
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane.
What is the prediction for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
On our numbers ES Hammam-Sousse have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 27% and US Ben Guerdane 45%.
How many goals will there be in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our predicted score is ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US Ben Guerdane, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
