Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 58% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +85%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓58% · @3.20
Double chanceSaburtalo or draw ✓82% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.77
Larne vs Saburtalo preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Larne take on Saburtalo on Tuesday 4 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Inver Park.
Form guide
Larne's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to FK Crvena Zvezda 0–5 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Saburtalo's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Slovan Bratislava 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Larne and 1.3 for Saburtalo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Larne 18%, draw 58%, Saburtalo 24%.
Safer route: Saburtalo or draw (82%) at 1.36.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 58% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Saburtalo or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Larne 1–1 Saburtalo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Larne18%fair 5.53 · @3.05
Draw58%fair 1.73 · @3.20
Saburtalo24%fair 4.13 · @2.32
2.47Expected goals
1.17Larne xG
1.30Saburtalo xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Larne 1.2 – 1.3 Saburtalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
58%
1.73
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Saburtalo or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Saburtalo / FT Saburtalo✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.77
–
Form
Larne – last 6
LLWWWD
29 Jul
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
0–5
L
21 Jul
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
0–4
L
14 Jul
vs Tre Fiori
2–1
W
7 Jul
@ Tre Fiori
1–0
W
29 Jun
@ H&W Welders
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Stranraer
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Saburtalo – last 6
DWLDWD
29 Jul
@ Slovan Bratislava
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Margveti 2006
3–1
W
21 Jul
vs Slovan Bratislava
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Flora Tallinn
2–2
D
8 Jul
@ Flora Tallinn
3–2
W
1 Jul
vs Torpedo Kutaisi
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Larne and Saburtalo.
Our pick is Saburtalo or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Larne vs Saburtalo?
On our numbers Larne have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Saburtalo 24%.
How many goals will there be in Larne vs Saburtalo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Larne vs Saburtalo?
Our predicted score is Larne 1–1 Saburtalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Larne vs Saburtalo?
Larne vs Saburtalo (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Inver Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Egnatia Rrogozhinë1