Value bet: Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimnasia Chivilcoy to win ✗43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.97
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Gimnasia Chivilcoy take on Sportivo Belgrano on Saturday 1 August, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Jose Maria Paz. Gimnasia Chivilcoy are 6th with 27 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Sportivo Belgrano sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gimnasia Chivilcoy's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Defensores de Belgrano VR 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sportivo Belgrano's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Atletico Escobar 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished Sportivo Belgrano 1–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Across their last 2 meetings Gimnasia Chivilcoy have won 0, Sportivo Belgrano 1, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.8 for Sportivo Belgrano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win at 2.55 – 43% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia Chivilcoy43%fair 2.35 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.70
Sportivo Belgrano32%fair 3.09 · @2.88
1.76Expected goals
0.97Gimnasia Chivilcoy xG
0.79Sportivo Belgrano xG
45%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Gimnasia Chivilcoy 1.0 – 0.8 Sportivo Belgrano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano?
On our numbers Gimnasia Chivilcoy have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sportivo Belgrano 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0–0 Sportivo Belgrano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano?
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Jose Maria Paz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
