Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D · Portugal

Lagoa

LLDLD
3–2
FT

Real

WWWWW

Lagoa vs Real prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.24Odds
2

Value bet: Real to win @ 2.68 – our chance 44% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultReal to win ✗44% · @2.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.64
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15

Win chances

Lagoa34%fair 2.94 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.02
Real44%fair 2.29 · @2.68
2.69Expected goals
1.24Lagoa xG
1.45Real xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%

From our goals model: Lagoa 1.2 – 1.4 Real expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Real shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Lagoa.

Lagoa have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Real have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 3.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. Real come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.7 goals (1.2 for Lagoa, 1.4 for Real). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Real to win at 2.68 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultReal to win ✗44%2.292.68 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.27
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓59%1.701.64
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.351.24
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓50%2.001.84
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗71%1.421.30
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓42%2.37–
Half-time / full-timeHT Real / FT Real ✗25%4.05–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10%10.15–

Form

Lagoa – last 6

LLDLDW
1 Nov@ Vitoria Setubal1–3L
25 Octvs Lajense1–2L
11 Oct@ Amora1–1D
19 Sep@ Atlético CP1–4L
13 Sepvs FC Serpa0–0D
6 Sep@ Santa Clara B2–1W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Real – last 6

WWWWWD
31 Octvs 1º Dezembro1–0W
24 Octvs São Paulo RS3–1W
24 Octvs Juventude Évora4–1W
18 Oct@ Clube 19928–0W
14 Oct@ SC Rio Grande2–1W
11 Oct@ Vitoria Setubal1–1D
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Lagoa and Real.

More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D predictions

FT Imortal Albufeira3 Santa Clara B2 452233 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.37 ✓ FT Aljustrelense0 FC Serpa4 282250 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.20 ✗ FT Alcochetense3 Lajense0 681913 1Alcochetense to win 68%@1.35 ✓ FT Portel0 Amora0 212158 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.21 ✓ FT Sintrense1 Vitoria Setubal1 592417 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓ FT 1º Dezembro2 Juventude Évora1 442234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lagoa vs Real?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.

Who will win Lagoa vs Real?

On our numbers Lagoa have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real 44%.

How many goals will there be in Lagoa vs Real?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

When is Lagoa vs Real?

Lagoa vs Real (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.