Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D · Portugal

Aljustrelense

LDLLL
0–4
FT

FC Serpa

DLWDD

Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa prediction & analysis

75%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.20Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultFC Serpa to win ✓50% · @2.01
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.66

Win chances

Aljustrelense28%fair 3.60 · @3.24
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.16
FC Serpa50%fair 1.99 · @2.01
2.59Expected goals
1.05Aljustrelense xG
1.54FC Serpa xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%

From our goals model: Aljustrelense 1.1 – 1.5 FC Serpa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

FC Serpa shade it despite being away from home – 50% to win, against 28% for Aljustrelense.

Aljustrelense have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 2.2 per game. FC Serpa have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. FC Serpa come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.1 for Aljustrelense, 1.5 for FC Serpa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.34.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFC Serpa to win ✓50%1.992.01
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.911.82
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.411.31
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.861.66
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75%1.341.20
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT FC Serpa / FT FC Serpa ✓29%3.45–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12%8.66–

Form

Aljustrelense – last 6

LDLLLD
1 Nov@ Santa Clara B0–3L
25 Octvs Imortal Albufeira1–1D
11 Oct@ Juventude Évora0–3L
27 Sepvs Alcochetense0–2L
20 Sep@ Os Limianos0–3L
13 Sep@ Portel1–1D
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

FC Serpa – last 6

DLWDDD
1 Novvs Portel2–2D
25 Oct@ Alcochetense1–3L
11 Octvs Sintrense2–0W
26 Sep@ Real1–1D
20 Sepvs Louletano1–1D
13 Sep@ Lagoa0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Aljustrelense and FC Serpa.

More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D predictions

FT Imortal Albufeira3 Santa Clara B2 452233 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.37 ✓ FT Alcochetense3 Lajense0 681913 1Alcochetense to win 68%@1.35 ✓ FT Lagoa3 Real2 342244 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24 ✓ FT Portel0 Amora0 212158 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.21 ✓ FT Sintrense1 Vitoria Setubal1 592417 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓ FT 1º Dezembro2 Juventude Évora1 442234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa?

On our numbers Aljustrelense have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Serpa 50%.

How many goals will there be in Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

When is Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa?

Aljustrelense vs FC Serpa (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.