Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.33Odds
2
Value bet: Vitoria Setubal to win @ 1.83 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitoria Setubal to win ✗65% · @1.83
Double chanceVitoria Setubal or draw ✗88% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.31
FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal preview and prediction
The match
Vitoria Setubal travel to face FC Serpa in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D on Sunday 16 August (17:00 WAT).
Form guide
FC Serpa's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Juventude Évora 0–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for FC Serpa and 1.8 for Vitoria Setubal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Serpa 12%, draw 24%, Vitoria Setubal 65%.
Safer route: Vitoria Setubal or draw (88%) at 1.33.
Value angle: Vitoria Setubal to win at 1.83 – 65% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vitoria Setubal or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Serpa 0–1 Vitoria Setubal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Serpa12%fair 8.57 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.20
Vitoria Setubal65%fair 1.55 · @1.83
2.43Expected goals
0.63FC Serpa xG
1.80Vitoria Setubal xG
44%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–39%
From our goals model: FC Serpa 0.6 – 1.8 Vitoria Setubal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria Setubal to win✗
65%
1.55
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Vitoria Setubal or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Vitoria Setubal ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria Setubal / FT Vitoria Setubal✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.31
–
Form
FC Serpa – last 6
LLWDWD
22 Mar
vs Juventude Évora
0–3
L
15 Mar
@ Louletano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Sintrense
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Portimonense B
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Atlético Malveira
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria Setubal
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Serpa and Vitoria Setubal.
What is the prediction for FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
Our pick is Vitoria Setubal or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
On our numbers FC Serpa have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitoria Setubal 65%.
How many goals will there be in FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
Our predicted score is FC Serpa 0–1 Vitoria Setubal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portel2
Sintrense2