Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultO Elvas to win ✓49% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.42
O Elvas vs Sertanense preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C sees O Elvas take on Sertanense on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino. O Elvas are 3rd with 16 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Sertanense sit 13th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
O Elvas's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to União de Leiria 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Sertanense's last 4: DLLD Most recently they drew with Atlético Malveira 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
O Elvas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.4 for O Elvas and 1.0 for Sertanense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 45%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: O Elvas 49%, draw 22%, Sertanense 29%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: O Elvas 1–0 Sertanense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
O Elvas49%fair 2.05 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Sertanense29%fair 3.45 · @3.10
2.31Expected goals
1.36O Elvas xG
0.95Sertanense xG
45%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: O Elvas 1.4 – 1.0 Sertanense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
O Elvas to win✓
49%
2.05
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT O Elvas / FT O Elvas✓
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.42
–
Form
O Elvas – last 6
LWWWDL
19 Sep
vs União de Leiria
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Fazendense
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs São Roque (Açores)
9–0
W
23 Aug
@ Nazarenos
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Fátima
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Alcochetense
0–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sertanense – last 4
DLLD
13 Sep
vs Atlético Malveira
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Alcains
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Mortágua
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ AD Nogueirense
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between O Elvas and Sertanense.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win O Elvas vs Sertanense?
On our numbers O Elvas have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sertanense 29%.
How many goals will there be in O Elvas vs Sertanense?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for O Elvas vs Sertanense?
Our predicted score is O Elvas 1–0 Sertanense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is O Elvas vs Sertanense?
O Elvas vs Sertanense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
