Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Florgrade to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMachico to win ✓44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.53
Machico vs Florgrade preview and prediction
The match
Florgrade travel to face Machico in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B on Saturday 10 October (15:00 WAT). Machico are 2nd with 16 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Florgrade sit 7th on 11 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Machico's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Alpendorada 2–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Florgrade's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Camacha 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for Machico and 0.9 for Florgrade. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Florgrade to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Machico 1–0 Florgrade. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Machico44%fair 2.28 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Florgrade34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
1.94Expected goals
1.07Machico xG
0.87Florgrade xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Machico 1.1 – 0.9 Florgrade expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machico to win✓
44%
2.28
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.53
–
Form
Machico – last 6
WDDWDD
13 Sep
@ Alpendorada
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Salgueiros
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Camacha
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Beira-Mar
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Estrela Calheta
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Maritimo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Florgrade – last 6
WWLDWD
27 Sep
@ Camacha
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Sanjoanense
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Camacha
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs São João Ver
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Guarda
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ União Lamas
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machico and Florgrade.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Machico vs Florgrade?
On our numbers Machico have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Florgrade 34%.
How many goals will there be in Machico vs Florgrade?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machico vs Florgrade?
Our predicted score is Machico 1–0 Florgrade, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Machico vs Florgrade?
Machico vs Florgrade (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
