Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✓71% · @1.18
Double chanceAEK Larnaca or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.12
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca host Karmiotissa in the 1. Division on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at AEK Arena. AEK Larnaca are 1st with 20 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Karmiotissa sit 12th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AEK Larnaca's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Krasava Ypsonas 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Karmiotissa's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Ermis 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AEK Larnaca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for AEK Larnaca and 0.8 for Karmiotissa. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AEK Larnaca 2–0 Karmiotissa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEK Larnaca71%fair 1.42 · @1.18
Draw18%fair 5.62 · @6.50
Karmiotissa12%fair 8.62 · @12.00
3.01Expected goals
2.23AEK Larnaca xG
0.77Karmiotissa xG
53%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 2.2 – 0.8 Karmiotissa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✓
71%
1.42
1.18
Double chance
AEK Larnaca or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.73
Half-time result
AEK Larnaca ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✓
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.12
–
Form
AEK Larnaca – last 6
DWDDWW
31 Oct
@ Krasava Ypsonas
2–2
D
26 Oct
vs Omonia Nicosia
2–0
W
21 Oct
vs Akritas
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Aris
1–1
D
12 Oct
vs Omonia Aradippou
1–0
W
18 Sep
@ Omonia 29is Maiou
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Karmiotissa – last 6
WWLLLD
3 Nov
vs Ermis
2–0
W
30 Oct
vs Olympiakos
1–0
W
25 Oct
vs Apollon Limassol
0–5
L
17 Oct
@ Krasava Ypsonas
1–2
L
9 Oct
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–3
L
20 Sep
@ Aris
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa.
What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Karmiotissa 12%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
Our predicted score is AEK Larnaca 2–0 Karmiotissa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa?
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa (1. Division) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
