Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pafos to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPafos to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chancePafos or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia preview and prediction
The match
Pafos host Apoel Nicosia in the 1. Division on Monday 19 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium. Pafos are 6th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Apoel Nicosia sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pafos's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Atalanta 1–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Apoel Nicosia's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Nea Salamis 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 May 2026, finished Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Pafos and 1.0 for Apoel Nicosia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Pafos to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pafos or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Pafos 1–1 Apoel Nicosia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pafos59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.10
Apoel Nicosia18%fair 5.43 · @3.75
3.00Expected goals
1.98Pafos xG
1.02Apoel Nicosia xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Pafos 2.0 – 1.0 Apoel Nicosia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia?
Our pick is Pafos or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia?
On our numbers Pafos have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Apoel Nicosia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia?
Our predicted score is Pafos 1–1 Apoel Nicosia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia?
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia (1. Division) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
