Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: AEK Larnaca to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.00
Aris vs AEK Larnaca preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca travel to Alphamega Stadium in the 1. Division on Sunday 18 October (17:00 WAT) to face Aris. Aris are 7th with 15 points from 9 games (in the top half), while AEK Larnaca sit 1st on 20 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Aris's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Ethnikos Achna 4–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AEK Larnaca's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Omonia Aradippou 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 May 2026, finished Aris 3–4 AEK Larnaca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Aris and 1.5 for AEK Larnaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aris 33%, draw 22%, AEK Larnaca 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: AEK Larnaca to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aris33%fair 3.07 · @2.70
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
AEK Larnaca45%fair 2.21 · @2.40
2.70Expected goals
1.21Aris xG
1.49AEK Larnaca xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aris 1.2 – 1.5 AEK Larnaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
On our numbers Aris have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AEK Larnaca 45%.
How many goals will there be in Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Our predicted score is Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Aris vs AEK Larnaca (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
