Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✗44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.04
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca host Pafos in the 1. Division on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at AEK Arena. AEK Larnaca are 1st with 20 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Pafos sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
AEK Larnaca's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Nea Salamis 4–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pafos's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Olympiakos 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for AEK Larnaca and 1.4 for Pafos. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AEK Larnaca 1–1 Pafos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEK Larnaca44%fair 2.25 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Pafos33%fair 3.02 · @2.80
3.00Expected goals
1.63AEK Larnaca xG
1.37Pafos xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 1.6 – 1.4 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✗
44%
2.25
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Form
AEK Larnaca – last 6
WWLWLD
6 Sep
@ Nea Salamis
4–1
W
29 Aug
vs Apoel Nicosia
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Omonia Aradippou
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Beitar Jerusalem
3–2
W
23 Jul
vs Beitar Jerusalem
0–1
L
16 Jul
@ Apollon Limassol
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 6
DWWDDD
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
3 Sep
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Karmiotissa
3–0
W
27 Aug
vs Dinamo Tirana
2–2
D
20 Aug
@ Dinamo Tirana
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Red Bull Salzburg
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Larnaca and Pafos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pafos 33%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is AEK Larnaca 1–1 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
