Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca W to win ✓80% · @1.05
Double chanceToluca W or draw ✓93% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.91
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗8% · fair 12.29
Necaxa W vs Toluca W preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX Femenil sees Necaxa W take on Toluca W on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 02:06 (WAT) at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa W are 18th with 1 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Toluca W sit 6th on 27 points (in the top half). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Necaxa W's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Monterrey W 0–10 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Toluca W's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL W 2–7 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Toluca W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Toluca W 5–1 Necaxa W.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 1.0 for Necaxa W and 3.3 for Toluca W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Necaxa W 7%, draw 13%, Toluca W 80%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Necaxa W 1–3 Toluca W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa W7%fair 13.46 · @19.00
Draw13%fair 7.92 · @13.00
Toluca W80%fair 1.25 · @1.05
4.31Expected goals
1.03Necaxa W xG
3.28Toluca W xG
60%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–38%
0–38%
1–27%
0–27%
1–47%
0–47%
From our goals model: Necaxa W 1.0 – 3.3 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Necaxa W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers Necaxa W have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Toluca W 80%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is Necaxa W 1–3 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Necaxa W vs Toluca W?
Necaxa W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
