Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Monterrey W to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey W to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chanceMonterrey W or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Monterrey W vs Toluca W preview and prediction
The match
Monterrey W host Toluca W in the Liga MX Femenil on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Cancha El Barrial. Monterrey W are 2nd with 37 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Toluca W sit 6th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Monterrey W's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Querétaro W 4–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Toluca W's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat León W 1–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.4 for Monterrey W and 1.0 for Toluca W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monterrey W 66%, draw 20%, Toluca W 13%.
Safer route: Monterrey W or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Monterrey W to win at 1.70 – 66% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monterrey W or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Monterrey W 2–1 Toluca W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey W66%fair 1.51 · @1.70
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.70
Toluca W13%fair 7.54 · @3.80
3.40Expected goals
2.38Monterrey W xG
1.02Toluca W xG
61%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Monterrey W 2.4 – 1.0 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey W to win✓
66%
1.51
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Monterrey W or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Monterrey W ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey W / FT Monterrey W✓
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Form
Monterrey W – last 6
WLWWWL
30 Aug
@ Querétaro W
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs León W
2–3
L
18 Aug
@ Santos Laguna W
4–1
W
9 Aug
vs Atlante W
3–1
W
2 Aug
@ Tijuana W
2–1
W
17 May
@ América W
0–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 6
WWDWWL
29 Aug
vs León W
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Atlante W
2–1
W
18 Aug
vs Atlas W
1–1
D
11 Aug
vs Juárez W
2–0
W
3 Aug
@ Atlético San Luis W
4–1
W
8 May
vs América W
1–7
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey W and Toluca W.
What is the prediction for Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Our pick is Monterrey W or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers Monterrey W have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca W 13%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is Monterrey W 2–1 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Monterrey W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Cancha El Barrial.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
