Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca W to win ✗76% · @1.13
Double chanceToluca W or draw ✓95% · fair 1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.93
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.81
Toluca W vs Atlas W preview and prediction
The match
Toluca W host Atlas W in the Liga MX Femenil on Tuesday 18 August, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT). Toluca W are 6th with 27 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Atlas W sit 13th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Toluca W's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Juárez W 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Atlas W's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Pachuca W 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Toluca W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.7 for Toluca W and 0.8 for Atlas W. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 70% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca W 76%, draw 19%, Atlas W 5%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 55% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Toluca W 3–0 Atlas W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca W76%fair 1.31 · @1.13
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @8.30
Atlas W5%fair 18.78 · @16.00
3.49Expected goals
2.73Toluca W xG
0.76Atlas W xG
55%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–08%
3–18%
4–07%
From our goals model: Toluca W 2.7 – 0.8 Atlas W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca W to win✗
76%
1.31
1.13
Double chance
Toluca W or draw✓
95%
1.06
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
2.00
Half-time result
Toluca W ahead at half-time✗
59%
1.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca W / FT Toluca W✗
55%
1.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.81
–
Form
Toluca W – last 6
WWLWWD
11 Aug
vs Juárez W
2–0
W
3 Aug
@ Atlético San Luis W
4–1
W
8 May
vs América W
1–7
L
4 May
@ Tigres UANL W
2–1
W
1 May
vs Tigres UANL W
2–1
W
25 Apr
@ Guadalajara W
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atlas W – last 6
DLLDLW
8 Aug
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Cruz Azul W
1–3
L
25 Apr
vs Juárez W
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Santos Laguna W
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ América W
0–2
L
28 Mar
vs Necaxa W
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca W and Atlas W.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Toluca W vs Atlas W?
On our numbers Toluca W have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atlas W 5%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca W vs Atlas W?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca W vs Atlas W?
Our predicted score is Toluca W 3–0 Atlas W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Toluca W vs Atlas W?
Toluca W vs Atlas W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
