Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 2.46 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓46% · @2.46
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.58
Toluca vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
Cruz Azul travel to Dignity Health Sports Park in the Campeón De Campeones on Sunday 26 July (01:30 WAT) to face Toluca.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cruz Azul's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Puebla 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Cruz Azul arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Toluca and 1.5 for Cruz Azul. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 32%, draw 22%, Cruz Azul 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 2.46 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Toluca 1–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca32%fair 3.11 · @2.74
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Cruz Azul46%fair 2.17 · @2.46
2.65Expected goals
1.17Toluca xG
1.47Cruz Azul xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.2 – 1.5 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
46%
2.17
2.46 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.58
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
LWDLLW
22 Jul
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
10 Jul
@ Atlante FC
3–3
D
4 Jul
@ Cancún
0–1
L
11 May
@ CF Pachuca
0–2
L
7 May
vs Los Angeles FC
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 6
WWDWDW
22 Jul
vs Puebla
2–1
W
18 Jul
@ Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Monarcas
3–3
D
25 May
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–1
W
22 May
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–0
D
17 May
@ Guadalajara Chivas
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Cruz Azul.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Toluca have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cruz Azul 46%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Toluca vs Cruz Azul (Campeón De Campeones) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Dignity Health Sports Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Campeón De Campeones · Mexico · Dignity Health Sports Park
