Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗66% · @1.73
Double chanceSumqayıt or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.90
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku preview and prediction
The match
Sumqayıt host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa on Monday 2 November, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Safa Baku sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Kür-Araz 11–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game.
Safa Baku's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Ağstafa Gəncləri 9–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Sumqayıt arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Sumqayıt and 0.8 for Safa Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 66%, draw 20%, Safa Baku 13%.
Safer route: Sumqayıt or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sumqayıt to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 1–0 Safa Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt66%fair 1.51 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.25
Safa Baku13%fair 7.57 · @4.50
2.76Expected goals
2.00Sumqayıt xG
0.76Safa Baku xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 2.0 – 0.8 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
66%
1.51
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Sumqayıt or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Sumqayıt ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.90
–
Form
Sumqayıt – last 6
WLWWDD
27 Oct
@ Kür-Araz
11–0
W
23 Oct
@ Zira
2–3
L
16 Oct
vs Araz
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Qabala
4–1
W
20 Sep
@ Kapaz
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Şamaxı FK
1–1
D
3.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
WLLLLL
28 Oct
vs Ağstafa Gəncləri
9–2
W
24 Oct
vs Kapaz
1–2
L
16 Oct
@ Şamaxı FK
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Sumqayıt to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Safa Baku 13%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
