Value bet: Kapaz to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKapaz to win ✓47% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.45
Safa Baku vs Kapaz preview and prediction
The match
Kapaz travel to ASK Arena in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 24 October (13:30 WAT) to face Safa Baku. Safa Baku are 11th with 5 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Kapaz sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Safa Baku's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Şamaxı FK 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Kapaz's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kapaz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Safa Baku and 1.3 for Kapaz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Safa Baku 31%, draw 22%, Kapaz 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Kapaz to win at 2.30 – 47% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Safa Baku 1–1 Kapaz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Safa Baku31%fair 3.25 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Kapaz47%fair 2.12 · @2.30
2.27Expected goals
0.97Safa Baku xG
1.30Kapaz xG
57%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Safa Baku 1.0 – 1.3 Kapaz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kapaz to win✓
47%
2.12
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.35 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kapaz / FT Kapaz✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLLLL
16 Oct
@ Şamaxı FK
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kapaz – last 6
DWDWLW
18 Oct
vs Zira
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Araz
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Sumqayıt
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Qabala
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Şamaxı FK
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Turan
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Safa Baku and Kapaz.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
On our numbers Safa Baku have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kapaz 47%.
How many goals will there be in Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
Our predicted score is Safa Baku 1–1 Kapaz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
Safa Baku vs Kapaz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at ASK Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
