Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceŞamaxı FK or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.99
Şamaxı FK vs Araz preview and prediction
The match
Şamaxı FK host Araz in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Shamakhi City Stadium. Şamaxı FK are 7th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Araz sit 12th on 4 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Şamaxı FK's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Sumqayıt 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Araz's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with Turan 2–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 March 2026, finished Keshla FC 0–1 Araz.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Şamaxı FK and 0.9 for Araz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şamaxı FK 56%, draw 24%, Araz 21%.
Safer route: Şamaxı FK or draw (79%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Şamaxı FK to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Şamaxı FK or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Araz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şamaxı FK56%fair 1.80 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.00
Araz21%fair 4.87 · @3.90
2.60Expected goals
1.68Şamaxı FK xG
0.92Araz xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Şamaxı FK 1.7 – 0.9 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Şamaxı FK or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Şamaxı FK vs Araz?
On our numbers Şamaxı FK have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Araz 21%.
How many goals will there be in Şamaxı FK vs Araz?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şamaxı FK vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Şamaxı FK 1–0 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Şamaxı FK vs Araz?
Şamaxı FK vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
