Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Zira vs Qarabag preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Zira take on Qarabag on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Zira Stadium. Zira are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Qarabag sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Zira's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 0–5 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Qarabag's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Araz 3–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.4 for Zira and 1.7 for Qarabag. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zira 32%, draw 21%, Qarabag 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Zira 1–1 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zira32%fair 3.09 · @3.00
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.30
Qarabag47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
3.14Expected goals
1.40Zira xG
1.74Qarabag xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Zira 1.4 – 1.7 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✗
47%
2.13
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.91
–
Form
Zira – last 6
LWWWDL
5 Sep
@ Sabah FA
0–5
L
30 Aug
vs Neftchi Baku
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Imisli FK
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Safa Baku
2–0
W
30 Jul
vs Paide
1–1
D
23 Jul
@ Paide
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WWLWWW
6 Sep
vs Araz
3–2
W
31 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
27 Aug
vs Twente
1–2
L
20 Aug
@ Twente
1–0
W
17 Aug
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
13 Aug
vs Dynamo Kyiv
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zira and Qarabag.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Zira vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Zira have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Qarabag 47%.
How many goals will there be in Zira vs Qarabag?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zira vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Zira 1–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Zira vs Qarabag?
Zira vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Zira Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
